Saturday, June 20, 2009

Whoa Variance

So I went over Jasons last night to hang out and we ended up playing some poker. I was playing pretty well then hit a huge downswing that was totally out of my control. I lost every AI possible; it was so sick. Over 1k hands I managed to lose 700 playing very well, and tilting off a stack at the end. I have recently set a stop loss at 500, but the hands I was losing I was playing well, I think i've finally experienced the sick HU variance. This is why I dropped to 100NL to learn HU instead of playing 200NL HU. Rather than post each hand, I'll just post links to the hands in pokerhand.org if you're really that bored to look.

Setup after small 3bet, he was 3betting 35%
Lost coin flip #1

Lost coin flip #2

KK < AK, aipf
cooler, 66 is the only hand i lose to and hes calling with worse
cooler, this one is a bit questionable i suppose
bad beat, set in 4bet pot cannot hold
my tilt bluff to cap it off

Aside from my tilt bluff, all of these hands more or less played themselves and all of it can be chalked up to variance. Yet again my classic "have a good month then dump it in one session towards the end of the month" strategy has come into play. Obv I just havent been putting in enough hands and if I did this would just end up looking like a little bump on a graph but it's still pretty sick. But it's an enlightening experience to know that running this poorly is probably not that uncommon over large samples of hands.

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